Executive Summary: Navigating Risks and Opportunities in 2025
The “Navigating Risks and Opportunities in 2025” webinar, held on 22 January 2025, marked iFHP’s first executive briefing of the year. Featuring presentations from Loïc Lanci, Economist at Swiss Re, and Nikos Kouvaras, Head of Medex Portfolio Insights and Monitoring, the session focused on the economic, environmental, and technological forces shaping health insurance globally in 2025.
Key Highlights:
1. Global Economic Outlook:
- Global growth is projected to remain stable at 2.8% for 2025, with significant divergence across regions. The US is set to outperform due to robust consumer demand, while Europe and China face structural challenges.
- Inflationary pressures persist, with varied impacts across regions influencing central bank policies. Geopolitical risks, including trade tensions, multi-lateral trade tariffs and fiscal tightening, may pose additional challenges.
2. Health Insurance Trends:
- Health insurance premiums are expected to grow by 2.6% in 2025–2026, driven by ageing demographics, medical inflation and increased penetration in emerging markets. Medical cost inflation is expected to stay high, averaging up to 10% per year in developed markets.
- Tailwinds include rising healthcare demand, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, spurred by regulatory changes and an expanding middle class.
3. Climate Change and Health:
Climate-related risks, such as extreme heat, air pollution and vector-borne diseases, are increasingly impacting healthcare costs and morbidity rates. These issues disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, creating new challenges for insurers.
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4. Advances in Healthcare:
- Innovations like liquid biopsies, AI-assisted imaging and groundbreaking therapies (e.g., Moderna’s melanoma vaccine) are reshaping treatment pathways. However, insurers must balance the benefits of these advancements with cost management.
5. Digital Transformation and AI:
GenAI (Generative AI) is projected to enhance operational efficiency by 30% and reduce preventable healthcare costs by 25% over the next five years. However, challenges such as data quality, cultural adoption, and integration remain critical barriers.
Read more: The Opportunity for Artificial Intelligence in Health Insurance Report
The webinar underscored the importance of strategic adaptability and collaboration to navigate these evolving dynamics. Please see the recording of the presentation below.